Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
